STRATEGIC COVID-19 PANDEMIC COMMITTEE

COVID-19 Trends

Updated: June 18, 2021

Our panel of physicians have gathered COVID-19 trends in Edmonton to inform and provide correct information for Albertans.

Graphs are updated weekly.

Courtesy of: Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary
https://www.chi-csm.ca

Daily Alberta and Zone Active COVID-19 Cases per 100,000
(June 12, 2021)

The third wave number of active cases is plateauing for all five zones. The province is currently detecting approximately 150 cases per day. They have not yet returned to the baseline that Alberta experienced in the valley between the first and second wave but are approximately at the level between the second and the third wave.

The plateauing indicates that the reduction in precautions is allowing both the alpha (B.1.1.7 , “UK) and the delta (B.1.617.2, “Indian”) variants to transmit successfully in the community. Continuing reduction in precautions as planned by the province is likely to see COVID transmission begin to increase again.

As of June 2nd the province had detected 79 cases of the delta variant. There had been 64 in Calgary, 7 in Edmonton, 2 in Central and 6 in the South zone. As of June 9th 222 cases of the delta variant in the province has been detected, an increase of 143 in a single week. As of June 12th there were 397 cases of the delta variant in Alberta with 347 occurring in the Calgary zone. This is an increase of 175 in the previous week with 31 in Edmonton, 12 in the South, 5 in Central and 2 in the North. This increase may be partly due to more complete testing but is also likely to be increased community transmission and is a sinister development given the province’s premature lifting of public health restrictions.

The delta variant is estimated to be 40% more transmissible than the alpha variant. The delta variant is also capable of infecting approximately two-thirds of people with one dose of any of the vaccines. This has alarming consequences for the 30.1% of the population over 12 that have not received a dose of vaccine and approximately 45.7% who have only had a single dose.

Daily Zone Hospitalized Active COVID-19 Cases
(June 13, 2021)

The number of active cases in Alberta hospitals is very slowly decreasing with 270 cases as of June 13th.

It is concerning that it has taken so long for hospitalizations to drop to more manageable levels closer to those seen last summer.

Alberta

Daily ICU Active COVID-19 Cases
(June 13, 2021)

ICU admissions in the province are at 73 beds which is significantly higher than the period between the second and the third wave (on March 12th there were 35).

As with hospitalizations, a slow decrease in the number of ICU beds occupied by COVID patients is concerning. Particularly with the lifting of COVID-19 precautions announced by the government, this slow decline jeopardizes achieving sufficient ICU capacity to allow routine surgeries to proceed.

Alberta

Daily Average Alberta Percentage Positive COVID-19 (June 12, 2021)

The average percentage positive is 3.2% and continues to be high compared to the rate last summer, which was below 1%. If the case numbers increase with the relaxed precautions we can expect the per cent positivity to increase again.