Why Can We Not Resume Normal Life
COVID-19 Questions & Myths
19. If we stop restrictions and testing what will happen? Can we not just live with COVID-19, as we do with seasonal influenza, resume normal life, and just protect the elderly in care homes?
No. If we stop testing, we will be unable to isolate infected people and quarantine the exposed. We would expect increasing community rates to result in high hospitalization rates and death, as happened with increased cases in December. There is no evidence of excess testing for COVID-19 in Alberta or Canada.
Second, as recently stated by Dr. Hinshaw, COVID-19 has killed as many Albertans in 10 months as seasonal influenza killed in the last 10 years. Total COVID-19 deaths were 1,073 in 2020 even with all of the measures taken, compared to our 2019 influenza season with 39 deaths (Alberta Health Services). COVID-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal influenza.
If COVID-19 is not contained by public health measures or immunization, a normal life is not possible. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, affecting health care for all, and many will die. This is what happened in Sweden, which encouraged social distancing but did not have a lockdown. Their hospital system has been overwhelmed and COVID-19 death rate has been much higher than any of its Northern European neighbours as reported by BBC News.
References:
i. COVID-19 has now killed more Albertans than last 10 flu seasons combined, CBC News
ii. Past Influenza Seasonal Data, Alberta Health Services
ii. Coronavirus: Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf says coronavirus approach 'has failed', BBC News
20. Why can we not use a natural herd immunity strategy?
Herd immunity (or population immunity) occurs when most of a population is immune to an infectious disease. If there are few susceptible people the infection cannot circulate widely, although infections can still occur. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve this (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health). This is usually due to vaccination. Long lasting “natural” herd immunity in a population has not been seen for any disease.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw notes allowing COVID-19 to infect most of our population is not a wise strategy because:
COVID-19 is estimated to be 10 times more deadly than influenza with an estimated mortality rate of 1%. For example, infecting 50% of Albertans (approximately 2.15 million people) would result in 21,500 deaths.
About 4% of patients overall need hospitalization. Our acute care system us usually full and has a total capacity for around 0.2% of the population at any time. Many places have seen health system collapse due to COVID-19 surges with deaths from not being able to provide care for COVID and non COVID patients.
Some patients describe prolonged illness which resembles Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, so lasting health impacts are a concern.
Evidence around long-lasting immunity is still unclear. We can’t assume that widespread natural infection will result in herd immunity and we know that vaccines can result in better and longer-term immunity with much less risk than natural infection.
Vaccines train our immune systems to fight disease, similar to being exposed to a disease, but crucially, vaccines work without making us sick. Until we can reach sufficient herd immunity through immunization, the best way to prevent severe illness and death from COVID-19 is to follow public health restrictions.
References:
i. What is Herd Immunity and How Can We Achieve It With COVID-19?, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
ii. Herd immunity and the Great Barrington Declaration, Alberta Health
iii. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19, World Health Organization