Potential Lockdown Harm

COVID-19 Questions & Myths

8. Are the COVID-19 control measures causing more harm than good?

This is a very hard question to answer because:

  • Damage done to the economy or to peoples’ health (mental, physical, emotional, and social) is potentially caused by the pandemic itself and pandemic control measures. It is difficult to separate these causes.

  • We have very good rapid information about the number of COVID-19 cases, and hospitalizations but information on the longer-term health care issues, the economy, suicide, bankruptcies and children’s education are collected slowly and incompletely.

Here is what we do know:

  • The control measures have prevented Albertan infection, hospitalization, and deaths from COVID-19, compared to what would have happened if Alberta had taken no measures. This can be measured from the flattened curve and compared to other places (if Alberta had the same number of COVID-19 as Montana, we would more than 4000 deaths so far.)

  • Many places have not implemented effective controls in time. They were either slow to act, acted in a fragmented way or did not act. The effects of the virus and its fear have been uncontrolled, resulting in severe damage to the economy and peoples’ health.

    • With uncontrolled spread emergency departments and ICUs are overwhelmed. People with life threatening conditions other than COVID-19 have died from lack of treatment.

    • Businesses suffer from absent employees and customers were afraid to shop for fear of getting COVID-19. This results in bankruptcies, unemployment, and financial hardship.

    • Families report more anxiety, and depression as a result of fear of infection, concern about vulnerable loved ones, and voluntary social isolation to protect themselves.

    • Stress increases for families not able to visit loved ones dying in hospitals.

    • Hospital morgues and funeral homes were overwhelmed from too many bodies with refrigeration spaces in short supply.

    • Healthcare staff can become physically, emotionally, and mentally exhausted. Some have been infected, hospitalized, and died. Some have committed suicide.

  • Places that act quickly to control the virus reduce societal damage.

    • Emergency departments, ICUs, hospitals, funeral homes, morgues, and their employees are able to manage.

    • There are reports of decreased deaths due to motor vehicle collisions.

    • Some businesses went bankrupt, people have suffered financial hardship, and unemployment.

    • There are reports of people experiencing loneliness, anxiety, and fear because of social isolation.

    • There are suggestions of increased deaths due to drug addiction, intimate partner violence, and potentially suicide, although reports are inconsistent.

    • There are reports of people delaying needed medical care including potentially life-threatening conditions, particularly from early in the pandemic.

The strategic approach is to first get the virus under control, then relax measures guided by data. This approach minimizes possible economic and population health damage by the restrictions. Relaxing measures before the virus is controlled allows COVID-19 to inflict maximum harm to the economy and the health of Albertans because of the need to restart and extend more severe restrictions and restore health care capacity.

9. Have more people died from lockdowns rather than COVID-19?

Based on current data, no. Some have suggested that the overall death rate in the first half of 2020 has been lower than in the same period of the previous five years, but the data source used is not yet updated, (the death rate for each year is not finalized until well into the following year.)  Using current data, as of December 31, 2020, 1,073 Albertans had died from COVID-19.  In 2019 this would have put COVID-19 as the fifth most common cause of death in Alberta, ahead of heart attack, stroke and diabetes (Government of Alberta).

It is also possible that some COVID-19 patients may die of complications from COVID-19 weeks or months after recovering from the main infection. Some are left with long-term serious organ disease, and chronic illness. 

This virus has forced the delay of some planned surgical procedures due to the large numbers of COVID-19 patients requiring hospital admission and filling hospitals areas usually devoted to the care of patients following surgery. Thus, at times of high COVID-19 transmission, some non COVID-19 patients may have died from delayed surgery.

References:
i. Cases is Alberta, Government of Alberta
ii. Leading Causes of Death, Government of Alberta

10. Are lockdowns worse for the economy that the pandemic?

(Also see #8). It is difficult to determine the separate effects of the pandemic, lockdowns, and other public health restrictions on the economy while still in the pandemic. However, countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, and Australia have managed to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections using strict lockdowns. It appears that the pandemic effect on their economies has been substantially less than countries with fewer restrictions, as they have resumed more normal economic activity earlier. Places that have delayed, inconsistent or no lockdowns, such as Argentina, the US and the UK, have seen severe economic harm because of illness in workers and consumers, and people voluntarily avoiding businesses.

11. Do lockdowns prevent access to healthcare for non-COVID-19 illnesses and conditions?

Right now, uncontrolled COVID-19 has reduced healthcare access, not a lockdown. Early in the pandemic people avoided healthcare for fear of catching COVID-19 and the health system delayed scheduled procedures and tests to make room for COVID-19 patients. However, hospitals have not closed because of public health restrictions. In the first wave many hospitals created more space than what was needed. In the second wave services continued until the number of COVID-19 patient hospital admissions overwhelmed the system’s normal capacity. The best way to reduce system pressure is for the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19 by following restrictions.

12. Have lockdowns been associated with increased suicide and drug overdose? 

It is difficult to determine the separate effects of the pandemic, lockdowns, and other public health restrictions on Canadians’ mental health. COVID-19 itself is having a negative impact with many seeing their stress levels double since the onset of the pandemic. People are struggling with fear and uncertainty about their own health and that of their loved ones. They also have concerns about employment and finances as even businesses that remain open are significantly affected by reduced consumer confidence.  Social isolation is worsened by required public health measures such as quarantining and physical distancing.  Unemployment and financial stresses are recognized as contributing stressors in death due to suicide. Deaths classified as suicides have complex and multifactorial reasons behind the suicide and attributing a suicide directly to one or two factors is usually not possible.

Due to data delays, it is not known yet if suicides have increased in 2020 compared with previous years but it has been suggested that suicide rates could significantly increase as a consequence of loss of employment and income due to the pandemic itself, lockdowns, lay-offs and unemployment.

Reference:
i. Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19, Roger S. MacIntyre & Yena Lee, Psychiatry Research

13. Are lockdowns causing an increase in crime because of financial desperation?

Based on current data from Statistics Canada this seems unlikely.  During the first six months of the pandemic, seventeen police services across Canada reported that select criminal incidents were down by 17% compared with the same period a year earlier, but calls for services like wellness checks, mental health calls, and calls to attend domestic disturbances rose by 8%.

When the physical distancing measures to control the pandemic from mid-March started easing in May, and businesses, services, and public spaces gradually re-opened throughout the summer, the volume of crimes and calls for service began to rise towards normal.

Reference:
i. Selected police-reported crime and calls for service during the COVID-19 pandemic, March to August 2020, Statistics Canada